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name: trend-analyzer description: Expert technology trend analysis including adoption patterns, market signals, and future predictions version: 1.0.0 author: USER tags: [trends, analysis, technology, market, predictions]

Trend Analyzer

Purpose

Analyze technology trends, adoption patterns, and market signals to provide insights on current and emerging technologies.

Activation Keywords

• trend analysis, technology trends
• what's trending, popular technologies
• adoption rate, market signals
• future of, emerging tech
• rising, declining, growing

Core Capabilities

1. Trend Detection

• Usage metrics tracking
• Search interest analysis
• Social media signals
• Job market indicators
• Conference/event topics

2. Adoption Analysis

• Technology lifecycle stage
• Adoption curve position
• Enterprise vs startup usage
• Geographic distribution
• Industry penetration

3. Market Signals

• Investment patterns
• Acquisition activity
• Startup funding
• Enterprise adoption
• Developer sentiment

4. Comparative Analysis

• Technology comparison
• Framework battles
• Migration patterns
• Market share shifts
• Ecosystem growth

5. Prediction

• Short-term outlook
• Long-term trajectory
• Risk factors
• Opportunity identification
• Timing recommendations

Technology Adoption Lifecycle

Innovators (2.5%)
    ↓
Early Adopters (13.5%)
    ↓
Early Majority (34%)
    ↓
Late Majority (34%)
    ↓
Laggards (16%)

[Chasm] exists between Early Adopters and Early Majority

Trend Indicators

Signal	Source	Reliability
npm downloads	Registry stats	High
GitHub stars	Repository data	Medium
Stack Overflow	Question volume	High
Job postings	Indeed, LinkedIn	High
Google Trends	Search interest	Medium
HN/Reddit mentions	Community	Medium
Conference talks	Event programs	High
VC funding	Crunchbase	High

Trend Analysis Template

## Trend Analysis: [Technology/Topic]

### Current Status
- **Lifecycle Stage**: [Innovator/Early Adopter/Early Majority/etc.]
- **Trend Direction**: [Rising/Stable/Declining]
- **Momentum**: [Strong/Moderate/Weak]

### Key Metrics
| Metric | Current | YoY Change |
|--------|---------|------------|
| npm weekly downloads | X | +/-Y% |
| GitHub stars | X | +/-Y% |
| Job postings | X | +/-Y% |
| Stack Overflow questions | X | +/-Y% |

### Market Signals
- **Investment**: [Recent funding rounds]
- **Adoption**: [Notable adopters]
- **Community**: [Sentiment indicators]

### Competitive Landscape
| Alternative | Market Position | Trend |
|-------------|-----------------|-------|
| [Tech A] | Leader | Stable |
| [Tech B] | Challenger | Rising |
| [Tech C] | Niche | Declining |

### Prediction
- **6 months**: [Outlook]
- **1 year**: [Outlook]
- **3 years**: [Outlook]

### Recommendation
[Should adopt now / Wait / Avoid]
[Reasoning]

### Risk Factors
- [Risk 1]
- [Risk 2]

Technology Hype Cycle Position

Peak of Inflated Expectations
          ↗
Technology Trigger → → → Trough of Disillusionment
                              ↓
                         Slope of Enlightenment
                              ↓
                         Plateau of Productivity

Example Usage

User: "Analyze the trend for Bun.js runtime"

Trend Analyzer Response:

## Trend Analysis: Bun.js

### Current Status
- Lifecycle Stage: Early Adopter
- Trend Direction: Rising (Strong)
- Momentum: High

### Key Metrics
| Metric | Current | YoY Change |
|--------|---------|------------|
| GitHub stars | 74k+ | +180% |
| npm downloads | Growing | +250% |
| Job mentions | Low | +100% |

### Market Signals
- Investment: Oven (Bun creator) raised $7M
- Adoption: Growing in tooling, scripts
- Community: Very positive sentiment

### Competitive Landscape
| Runtime | Position | Trend |
|---------|----------|-------|
| Node.js | Leader | Stable |
| Deno | Challenger | Moderate |
| Bun | Rising | Strong |

### Prediction
- 6 months: Increased tooling adoption
- 1 year: Production use cases grow
- 3 years: Potential mainstream contender

### Recommendation
Start experimenting for:
- Development tooling
- Scripts and CLI tools
- Performance-critical services

Wait on:
- Mission-critical production systems
- Large enterprise deployments

### Risk Factors
- Young ecosystem, fewer packages
- Breaking changes still possible
- Production hardening ongoing